The record · updated Oct 25, 2026

Every pick, logged before kickoff.

Wins and losses, all of them. A pick goes in the log before the game starts and it never changes after that. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%, so that's the bar.

Spread picks14–1450.0% · −1.27 units at −110

Total picks8–1929.6% · −11.73 units at −110

Line value, spreads−0.2 ptsvs the closing line, 28 picks · positive beats it

Games logged9163 picks · 43 passed · 2026 season

The model vs me

The model's plays are only games where it disagreed with the book by 3 points or more, graded at one unit to win at -110. Mine are the bets I actually made, with it or against it. Shown in units, not dollars.

NFL · The model22-33−14.30 units

NFL · Me5-0+8.25 units

NBA · The model12-10+1.00 units

NBA · Me2-2+1.96 units

Date	Sport	My play	Odds	Risked	Result	Units	Model
2026-10-21	NBA	MIN ML	+100	1.00u	win	+1.00u	with the model
2026-10-21	NBA	GSW +7.5 (alt line, bought 1 pt)	−124	1.24u	loss	−1.24u	with the model (its play)
2026-10-20	NBA	BOS ML	−118	1.18u	loss	−1.18u	with the model
2026-10-20	NBA	PHI ML	+150	2.25u	win	+3.38u	against the model
2026-10-08	NFL	DK SGP 5 legs: Bucky Irving 40+ rush yds, Irvi…	+1700	0.20u	win	+3.40u	—
2026-10-08	NFL	TB +10 (bought half point off +9.5, pregame)	−125	1.25u	win	+1.00u	no strong view
2026-10-04	NFL	LA -3 (BetMGM boost)	−128	2.00u	win	+1.56u	no strong view
2026-10-04	NFL	KC ML (-235) + SF ML (-165) parlay	+129	1.00u	win	+1.29u	—
2026-10-04	NFL	CAR +4.5 (pregame)	−110	1.10u	win	+1.00u	no strong view

Open picks

Date	Game	Market	Pick	Our number	Edge	Logged	Status
2026-10-25	SF @ ATL	Spread	SF −2.5	SF −6.7	4.2	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-25	SF @ ATL	Total	Under 49.5	44.3	5.2	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-25	CIN @ BAL	Spread	BAL +1.5	BAL −4.3	5.8	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-25	TB @ CAR	Total	Under 44.5	40.3	4.2	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-25	NYG @ HOU	Spread	NYG +10	NYG +5.4	4.6	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-25	NYG @ HOU	Total	Over 42.5	45.6	3.1	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-25	GB @ DET	Total	Under 53.5	47.3	6.2	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-25	KC @ SEA	Spread	KC +3	KC −2.2	5.2	2026-10-24 18:16 UTC	pending

Graded

Date	Game	Market	Pick	Our number	Edge	Final	Result	vs close
2026-10-22	NE @ CHI	Spread	NE +3	NE PK	3.0	NE 24 – CHI 30	loss	PK
2026-10-22	NE @ CHI	Total	Under 50.5	47	3.5	NE 24 – CHI 30	loss	PK
2026-10-19	WAS @ SF	Spread	SF −7.5	SF −11.2	3.7	WAS 17 – SF 23	loss	PK
2026-10-19	WAS @ SF	Total	Under 50.5	47.4	3.1	WAS 17 – SF 23	win	−1
2026-10-18	CHI @ ATL	Spread	ATL +3	ATL −0.5	3.5	CHI 31 – ATL 23	loss	−1.5
2026-10-18	CHI @ ATL	Total	Under 49.5	45.9	3.6	CHI 31 – ATL 23	loss	−2
2026-10-18	BAL @ CLE	Spread	BAL −4.5	BAL −9.1	4.6	BAL 10 – CLE 13	loss	+1.5
2026-10-18	NO @ NYG	Total	Under 45.5	41.4	4.1	NO 34 – NYG 27	loss	−1
2026-10-18	ARI @ LA	Spread	ARI +13.5	ARI +7.3	6.2	ARI 18 – LA 16	win	−1
2026-10-18	DAL @ GB	Total	Under 52.5	47.4	5.1	DAL 13 – GB 23	win	−1
2026-10-11	PHI @ JAX	Total	Over 42.5	45.5	3.0	PHI 17 – JAX 19	loss	−1
2026-10-11	LV @ NE	Total	Under 45.5	40.7	4.8	LV 17 – NE 45	loss	PK
2026-10-11	DET @ ARI	Spread	DET −4.5	DET −9	4.5	DET 45 – ARI 21	win	−1
2026-10-11	DET @ ARI	Total	Under 54.5	47.6	6.9	DET 45 – ARI 21	loss	−1
2026-10-11	SF @ SEA	Total	Under 47.5	43.8	3.7	SF 32 – SEA 29	loss	+1
2026-10-08	TB @ DAL	Total	Over 47.5	52.4	4.9	TB 24 – DAL 16	loss	+2
2026-10-05	ATL @ NO	Spread	ATL +3	ATL −0.2	3.2	ATL 45 – NO 24	win	−1.5
2026-10-05	ATL @ NO	Total	Under 48.5	42	6.5	ATL 45 – NO 24	loss	+1
2026-10-04	IND @ WAS	Spread	WAS +3.5	WAS −1.6	5.1	IND 30 – WAS 13	loss	+1
2026-10-04	NE @ BUF	Spread	NE +7	NE +2.5	4.5	NE 29 – BUF 26	win	PK
2026-10-04	NE @ BUF	Total	Under 48.5	44.9	3.6	NE 29 – BUF 26	loss	−1
2026-10-04	NYJ @ CHI	Spread	CHI −3.5	CHI −10.5	7.0	NYJ 12 – CHI 23	win	PK
2026-10-04	JAX @ CIN	Spread	JAX +2.5	JAX −2.8	5.3	JAX 22 – CIN 17	win	PK
2026-10-04	DAL @ HOU	Spread	DAL +2.5	DAL −0.8	3.3	DAL 34 – HOU 30	win	+0.5
2026-10-04	ARI @ NYG	Total	Over 44.5	47.6	3.1	ARI 24 – NYG 36	win	PK
2026-10-04	GB @ TB	Total	Over 39.5	45.2	5.7	GB 17 – TB 14	loss	−1
2026-10-04	MIA @ MIN	Spread	MIA +11.5	MIA +6.4	5.1	MIA 10 – MIN 15	win	−1.5
2026-10-04	MIA @ MIN	Total	Over 38.5	42.8	4.3	MIA 10 – MIN 15	loss	PK
2026-10-04	KC @ LV	Total	Under 47.5	38.6	8.9	KC 30 – LV 27	loss	PK
2026-10-04	LAC @ SEA	Total	Under 42.5	39.1	3.4	LAC 23 – SEA 30	loss	PK
2026-10-04	DEN @ SF	Spread	SF −3	SF −6.7	3.7	DEN 14 – SF 24	win	PK
2026-09-28	PHI @ CHI	Spread	CHI +3	CHI −4	7.0	PHI 7 – CHI 27	win	+0.5
2026-09-27	LAC @ BUF	Spread	BUF −7	BUF −10.2	3.2	LAC 16 – BUF 24	win	PK
2026-09-27	LAC @ BUF	Total	Under 50.5	45.6	4.9	LAC 16 – BUF 24	win	PK
2026-09-27	HOU @ IND	Spread	IND +2.5	IND −0.5	3.0	HOU 17 – IND 19	win	−1
2026-09-27	HOU @ IND	Total	Over 43.5	46.9	3.4	HOU 17 – IND 19	loss	−2
2026-09-27	NE @ JAX	Spread	NE +3	NE −0.6	3.6	NE 6 – JAX 35	loss	PK
2026-09-27	TEN @ NYG	Total	Over 40.5	43.7	3.2	TEN 7 – NYG 12	loss	−3
2026-09-27	SEA @ WAS	Total	Over 40.5	43.7	3.2	SEA 31 – WAS 33	win	PK
2026-09-27	MIN @ TB	Spread	TB +1.5	TB −2.5	4.0	MIN 23 – TB 16	loss	PK
2026-09-27	LV @ NO	Total	Under 43.5	37	6.5	LV 35 – NO 27	loss	PK
2026-09-21	NYG @ LA	Spread	NYG +7	NYG +2.9	4.1	NYG 6 – LA 28	loss	−0.5
2026-09-21	NYG @ LA	Total	Over 47.5	52	4.5	NYG 6 – LA 28	loss	PK
2026-09-20	CAR @ ATL	Spread	ATL +2.5	ATL −0.5	3.0	CAR 34 – ATL 3	loss	PK
2026-09-20	CLE @ TB	Spread	CLE +8.5	CLE +4.9	3.6	CLE 23 – TB 19	win	PK
2026-09-20	CLE @ TB	Total	Over 41.5	44.9	3.4	CLE 23 – TB 19	win	PK
2026-09-20	PHI @ TEN	Spread	PHI −7	PHI −10	3.0	PHI 24 – TEN 20	loss	PK
2026-09-20	JAX @ DEN	Spread	JAX +2.5	JAX −4.8	7.3	JAX 13 – DEN 20	loss	PK
2026-09-20	LV @ LAC	Spread	LV +6.5	LV +2.2	4.3	LV 26 – LAC 14	win	PK
2026-09-20	LV @ LAC	Total	Under 43.5	36.4	7.1	LV 26 – LAC 14	win	PK
2026-09-20	SEA @ ARI	Total	Over 41.5	44.8	3.3	SEA 31 – ARI 7	loss	−1
2026-09-20	WAS @ DAL	Spread	WAS +4.5	WAS +0.2	4.3	WAS 20 – DAL 37	loss	−1
2026-09-20	MIA @ SF	Spread	MIA +13.5	MIA +9.1	4.4	MIA 13 – SF 35	loss	−1
2026-09-20	MIA @ SF	Total	Over 44.5	48.3	3.8	MIA 13 – SF 35	win	PK
2026-09-17	DET @ BUF	Spread	DET +5.5	DET +1.8	3.7	DET 31 – BUF 41	loss	PK

How it's scored

A pick is any game where our number is 3+ points off the book's spread or total. Everything else is a pass.
Each pick is graded against the line at the moment we logged it, at -110. One unit per pick.
"vs close" is how many points better (or worse) our number was than the closing line. Beating the close over time is the real test of an edge.
If a starting quarterback changes before kickoff, the open pick is re-priced and re-timestamped. Once a game kicks off, its row is locked.

For entertainment and information. Not betting advice. Bet only what you can afford to lose.